Week in Focus

Brexit negotiations - The EU, the wannabe giant

The EU’s position in the Brexit negotiations is not as strong as it currently seems. Indeed, in the event of no deal on Brexit, it also has a lot at stake. For instance, Germany exported more to the UK than to China in 2016. Moreover, if no deal is concluded the EU would struggle to collect the huge outstanding claims to which it believes it is entitled, and many EU countries fear the prospect of an intensification of tax competition from the UK. In the end, the two parties are likely to strike a free-trade deal. Until then, however, the pound looks set to come under sustained pressure.

Further topics:

OPEC does not learn from its mistakes

Although implemented in disciplined fashion, the effect of OPEC production cuts has evaporated due to the rapid recovery in US oil production. Although OPEC obviously only has limited influence on prices the production curbs are likely to be extended, which may temporarily prices but is unlikely to be successful in the longer-term.

Outlook for the week of 15 to 19 May 2017

  • Economic data: After the US economy barely grew in the first quarter, April data are likely to inspire hope that the economy may regain traction in the second quarter. The German ZEW index is likely to keep moving sideways in no man's land.
  • Bond market:Forthcoming weeks will be crucial for the European bond market, with various markets trading close to critical levels following France-driven repricing. Bunds look set to remain under selling pressure. Further upside in French bonds seems exhausted.
  • FX market: EUR-CHF is trading at its highest since October raising the question of whether the SNB will be able to stop intervening to weaken its own currency? Near-term, downside risks seem to have declined but this may prove deceptive in the medium-term.
  • Equity market: US implicit volatility has fallen to a 24-year low. This kind of ‘complacent’ investor sentiment is typical of an ageing bull market. But it is not an immediate sell signal since bear markets are usually prompted by restrictive monetary policies adding to investor complacency. This combination is not yet evident.
  • Commodity market:The price of Brent oil should hover around USD 50 next week. Although US oil production is recovering quickly, there are also first signs of a reduction in inventories.

For further information, please contact:

Stefan Gringel

Phone +49 69 136 51435

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